October 09, 2006

Election Projection

Blogging Caesar has his new projection up, and it's a doozy! He's projecting Dems taking control of the Senate. Harry Reid as Majority Leader... oh, the horrors!!! (here is where I'm really hoping my friend Scott is oh-so-very-wrong!!!)

Projected Tally

Senate
This week: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1
Last week: 52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND - DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1

House
This week: 220 GOP, 215 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +13, GOP -12, IND -1
Last week: 221 GOP, 214 DEM, 0 IND - DEM +12, GOP -11, IND -1

Governorships
This week: 24 GOP, 26 DEM - DEM +4, GOP -4
Last week: 22 GOP, 28 DEM - DEM +6, GOP -6

Posted by GM Roper at October 9, 2006 02:17 PM | TrackBack
Comments

This is the top of the crest for the Democrats.

Posted by Assistant Village Idiot at October 9, 2006 05:07 PM

The Reps, or so it seems to me, have become soft, self-serving, lost focus and are not always the sharpest knives in the drawer.

The Dems, on the other hand, have no program in the middle of a WAR! They are still acting like they (damn near all) graduated from the Neville Chamberlain School of Foreign Affairs for Idiots. The are self-serving, have no focus and don't know what knives are...nor drawers. They just really want to use my money (socialism) to buy other people's votes so as to stay in office. Has roughly 40+ years of socialist programs worked?

So, picking the Reps is often not the stellar ones one would wish, but who with any sense would pick the Dems?

OK, I know, the same folks who believe you can all hold hands, give hugs, sing and love one another. Ah, idealism. Tis' a wonderful thing, until the thugs kick your proverbial door in and massacre everyone. Ask the Jews, Cambodians, Iraqi Kurds, and the list is too long by half.

What a country does in time of war is watched by the entire world. Believe it, they are watching. Our very freedom is at stake and we are dithering about stuff that is so inconsequential in comparison that it staggers one.

Posted by tad at October 9, 2006 11:33 PM

tad,

One of the problems with basing one's entire political appeal on war frenzy is that people need to feel the threat and the fury of war close at hand. There comes a point when words and images are not enough. In this case, many people are figuring out (a bit late in the game) that America is a very, very large country, and that America's "enemy in war" is a relatively small band of misfits and fanatics capable only of sporadic (although sometime spectacular) violence.

Any bombs dropped in your neighbourhood lately, tad? Any of your neighbours disappeared in the middle of the night recently? Do you need to step over the corpses during your morning commute?

Some people do live that way. That is what war would be like. The Vietnamese have seen these things. If you visit Vietnam today, you will find that people flat avoid the subject. The good citizens of Baghdad are in the grips of a war, and judging from what one can read at this distance, most of them would prefer never to have had the experience.

But America is not in the grips of a war. America is in the grips of a contest between two parasitic political machines, one of which has developed an especially strong taste for blood and lust for wealth. If you have not been invited to share directly in the spoils by The Party of Responsibility, you would do well to take word of this vast international Islamofascist conspiracy (you know, the one you have been told is stalking your town) with a grain or two of salt. It's a safe bet that the mullas will not be taking over the local Elks Lodge anytime soon.

Posted by Jassalasca Jape at October 10, 2006 01:40 AM

America is in the grips of a contest between two parasitic political machines, one of which has developed an especially strong taste for blood and lust for wealth.--JJ

So near and yet so F-A-R. You had me rooting for you right up to the end of " parasitic political machines" and then off the rails you went with that tirade about 'taste for blood and lust for wealth'.

Are you serious ? You sincerely believe that the Republicans are motivated by brutality and greed and that they are actively engaged in promoting a climate of fear in order to maintain their hold on power ?

Seriously ?

It's a safe bet that the mullahs will not be taking over the local Elks Lodge anytime soon. --JJ

So because they CURRENTLY lack the means to achieve a devastating strike, your argument is that they are therefore a 'minimal' annoyance and we should just don't worry-- be happy .?
Or are you saying that despite their own words, they really do not have the intent to actively assault our interests in the world?

I hate to let you in on the secret JJ, but it is precisely attitudes such as you appear to express in this post, that ENSURE those evil Republicans continue to wield power. The ENEMY is either an ENEMY or not. You evidently think them beneath notice. Not everyone agrees. Nor will they in the future even if the non War-Mongering Party happens to achieve a temporary 'victory' this year.

Neither 'ostrich-like' or ' conspiracy-riven' are attributes that inspire confidence among the majority of the population. Just FYI.

On the subject of the latest polling --- I made the point elsewhere that the Foley mess was the 'final straw' for the Republicans, and a 'simplistic' way to focus voter disapproval of Congress, and that consequently they were going to get 'hammered' this year. My conjectures were not well received. But I stand behind them nonetheless. I could reference the latest polls released today but why carry coals to Newcastle here.

Lousy Approval Ratings For Congress-- Check.
Lousy Performance By Congress --Check.
Lousy Members Of Congress --Check.
Desire To 'Toss The Rascals Out'--Check.
Republican 'Rascals' Currently in Charge.--Check.
WOT Annoyingly Difficult--Check.
Foley ( Ewwwww. )--CHECK.

Not looking good. Not likely to look better in November.

Posted by dougf at October 10, 2006 09:06 AM

dougf,

When you have finished asphyxiating yourself over your little Manichaean tirade, please take note of the fact that my home is within easy reach of proven North Korean missile capability and, now, of proven North Korean atomic warheads. Their kit doesn't seem to work very well, but given the blast radius of your typical nuclear bomb, I think you will agree that I do have grounds for concern.

What I am pleading for here is a slightly more grown-up attitude toward diplomacy and international affairs. Not that I hold you personally accountable for America's strategic miscalculations, dougf. But if you declare yourself a member of The Party of Responsibility, that presumably does make you in some sense responsible. Or have I missed something?

Posted by Jassalasca Jape at October 10, 2006 05:40 PM

The question of America versus some fanatic element of Islam, or perhaps even something of Islam itself, boils down to whether you believe what is happening to Europe can happen here. If not - if we have some even partially immunity to the social fragmentation they are experiencing there - then perhaps we have little to worry about, and JJ is correct. But whether we are being bombed at the moment or are stepping over corpses is not a good measure of that.

In general, JJ, when people try to sell me their idea with the declaration that it's a "slightly more grown-up attitude," I have found that the opposite has been true. Naivete often calls itself wisdom, and lack of resolve calls itself careful consideration. This is not to say that belligerence is wisdom, or that diplomacy is never the answer. But I do have to point out that you have brought in an element of the relative social status of ideas, rather than a purely intellectual evaluation of the issues.

Seldom persuasive with me.

Posted by Assistant Village Idiot at October 10, 2006 05:53 PM

Assistant Village Idiot,

I hope you will believe me when I thank you for responding calmly. We disagree, clearly. As anyone who follows these pages will have suspected, I have never been able to see the second Iraq War as anything but a gargantuan strategic blunder; I am deeply suspicious of moves by government to forcibly prevent what you refer to as "social fragmentation"; and t seems to me that today's Republican Party (to call it by its proper name for once) is a close cousin with the Indian National Congress or the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, in the sense of being a rudderless juggernaut intent on retaining power at any cost.

Thank you for not disagreeing at the top of your lungs.

Posted by Jassalasca Jape at October 10, 2006 09:34 PM





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