Who would have thought, way back in February of '07 that the Presidential Nomination Campaign of Hillary Rodham Clinton would be in such dire straits.  Now there is a term for you; dire straits.  Dire is from the Latin dïrus, meaning fearsome, terrible; and of course straits are narrow waters between two larger bodies, often fraught with danger.

And that is exactly where Hillary's disastrous campaign has brought her.  As of today, Obama has won 10 straight victories and Hillary must be pulling her hair out.  Her managers are sending out the word for anyone with an idea to call in.  Terry McCaullif himself is taking calls. She fired her Hispanic campaign manager and brought on an African American.  And this was only a couple of weeks prior to the Texas Primary where fully 1/3 of all voters are Hispanic. 

Historically, Democrats have been big supporters of the Clintons.  Here in the Rio Grande Valley they have made multiple trips over the last 16 years collecting political cash, and this from one of the poorest parts of the country.  Yet, come they have and have raked in millions.  Almost makes you wonder where all that money came from doesn't it? 

Compounding the problem for Hillary is Bill's insistence on making this a race issue.  He did it in South Carolina and elsewhere as well.  But Texas is home to an awful lot of blacks, and they will likely go for Obama in the record numbers that Obama has been posting.  Too, Obama has been making huge inroads into the Hispanic youth who may turn out in large numbers for him if they turn out at all. 

Texas has Early "No Excuse" Voting which began yesterday and already the large counties of Harris, Bexar and Dallas and Travis are reporting larger than normal turnout.  Could this be a Texas Tsunami.

And the race card in Texas cannot and should not be discounted.  The Latino groups are angry at the short shrift given to their needs by the NAACP.  They have already supplanted African-Americans as the largest minority and though many are family oriented and conservative, the Democratic Party has been their home for a long, long time, that is until the candidacy of George W. Bush.  In 2000 and 2004 Bush carried a much larger percentage of Latino votes than was expected.

In this primary, there are 228 Democratic Delegates at stake and by careful planning and campaigning (Obama is already preparing Spanish language adds on health care - Hillary's signature issue) Obama could take the giant's share, maybe as many as 60-70%, and that would put paid to the Clinton Campaign for sure.

In 2004, almost 60% of Latinos of voting age were registered as opposed to almost 71% of blacks and 70% of Whites.  When you compare the numbers of voters this represents, 5.23 million Latino voters, 1.6 million blacks and 13.2 million whites, this can be a substantial number of votes for Hillary, assuming she carries the majority of white and Latino voters.  But Obama is doing everything he can to break the ties to the Clinton machine.  And he has a good shot at it.

Travis County is the home of Austin and the University of Texas; and Austin is inarguably the most liberal city in Texas.  In fact, it's nickname is Moscow on the Colorado.  This could play well for Obama if he can turn out the vote.  Too, there are numerous counties in East Texas with large black populations that could well be in the Obama corner too. 

Hillary has her work cut out for her.  First, she has to overcome the "looser" image that Obama's 10 victories have tossed in her direction.  Second, she has to hold on to the Latino vote and increase her percentage among whites and blacks.  And lastly, and most important perhaps, she has to start appearing honest, hopeful, and in charge of what is now seen as a floundering campaign.  Can she do it?  We'll see on March 4th.

Posted at 09:32 PM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
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