February 16, 2008

Behavior, Reward and The War In Iraq.

Listening to the two front runners in the Democrat race for the nomination, one would think that pulling out of Iraq is a no-brainer.  Obama has said, from time to time, that he would pull out immediately (coitus-Iraqus interruptus?) and pull out after insuring something akin to "peace in our time." 

Hillary on the other hand would variously pull out after 60 days, would keep some "peace keepers" in Iraq for a while or would confer with her advisers.  None-the-less, she gives the impression that the war is toast and out we come.

Neither candidate however has bothered to take a look at what psychologists and others in the field of managing human behavior have long known.  If you want a behavior to continue, or to increase - reward that behavior.

"Roper, you're full of it," you might be saying, but you would be wrong.  We have seen time and time again the results of not standing up to the islamofascists that we are at war with.  I'm not sure why they can't see what is right before their eyes, and doubtless in their memories, but if you kow tow to islamofascists they take that as a sign of weakness and redouble their efforts.  Recently, there has been in the news reports of Saudi Arabia willing to "allow an increase" in terrorism in England if the British powers that be don't stop investigating Prince Bandar's corrupt practices in the purchase of arms. State sponsored terrorism anyone?

Reagan didn't retaliate after the bombing of the Marine Barracks in 1983, Clinton didn't do much after the plot to kill Bush the Elder, or, indeed many other atrocities.  The list is long! In fact there can be an implied link between 

this   and this  .

Those that can't see the connection between the twin towers bombing in 1993 and the attack of 2001 have blinders on, and they've put them on willingly.  Part of the reason that the latter happened, was that there was no significant response to the former.  And that was not just Clinton's fault, the intellectual blindness as to reward increasing a behavior goes back decades to at least Carter and the sacking of the US Embassy in Iran, through Regan and Bush (41) and Clinton and far too much in  Bush (43).

But that was then, and this is now, and we have an opportunity to put a halt to that blindness.  But not with Hillary or Barack in the White House.

 

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October 24, 2007

Bloggers Headline of the Day

Double-Reverse Chickendove

Go read it all!

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October 01, 2007

Selling What Belongs to Iraq

Own a part of history. Acquire some exotic item that might have been outright stolen or bought with money from Iraq's treasury and owned by a murdering dictator, now dead. I would want something owned by Saddam Hussein about as much as I would want Hitler's gold taken from the teeth of his victims.

The seller says that twenty percent of the proceeds will go to help rebuild Iraq. I think that I would want some proof of that, and I wonder why not one-hundred percent if these items were acquired through the then existing Iraqi government. I cannot say how the seller obtained these items and how much he paid, but I sure would like to know.

Possessions and Gifts To Saddam Hussein For Sale

An unprecedented and unique opportunity has arisen to purchase some of the most valuable and infamous possessions in modern day history, which are showcased throughout this web site and are being auctioned.

Saddam Hussein's possessions include his personal silver cigarette case that was given to him as a reward for killing his first man, his personal Rolex watch that was made for him on special order which is made of gold, diamonds and saphire, the pen that was used to sign the death warrants of 66 members of the Ba'ath Party, his personal prayer beads, the sunglasses he wore when on the desert front in the Iran-Iraq war and more.

Pretty sordid. I also noted this Persian rug up for bid:

This Persian hand made rug (sacred giant floor rug) was in the main Jewish synagoge,in Baghdad, until Saddam Hussein visited the synagoge in 1979 and personally requested the rug to be added to his personal collection. It was made in 1350 Lunar calender (1906).

The rabbis are probably still laughing after they doubled the price and told Saddam that he was getting twenty-five percent off. Such a deal.

Other items include Saddam Hussein's neck ties, and I wouldn't mind seeing the one that cost him the most--the one around his neck.

I still have my "Most-Wanted Iraqi Playing Cards," which are sure to be a collector's item. Look for them on the "American Roadshow." Saddam Hussein didn't own those because he refused to give the U.S. military his forwarding address, and catching up with him meant that the Ace of Spades became immediately out of play. I think we know where Hussein eventually settled, though, and it's not with seventy-two virgins.

Let's hope that the items Hussein took from the Iraqi people come back to them in full, one way or another.

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September 12, 2007

It Depends Upon the Meanings of "Associated" and "Betray"

As widely publicized, Moveon.org (which never moves on) ran a full page ad on Monday in The New York Times (discounted by $102,000) attacking Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, with the headline "General Petraeus or General Betray Us?"

At an important Congressional hearing, Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker testified on the U.S. future in Iraq. At that hearing, this exchange took place:

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Florida): "...I offer my colleagues the opportunity to use this hearing to distance themselves from the despicable ad that was published today calling into question the patriotism of General Petraeus.”

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii): "Point of order, Mr. Chairman! Nobody has to distance themselves from something they weren’t associated with.”

Liberals defended the ad and said that the inference that that the general is a traitor is wrong because "the word 'traitor' appears nowhere in the MoveOn.org ad.... The word 'betray' used by MoveOn in the ad implies many meanings, but does not directly imply 'traitor'."

Here are my thoughts:

• The ad is wrong and offensive to say that our commanding general in Iraq betrays our country.
• The Democrats do not consider that taking money from MoveOn.org, accepting its publicity, and participating at its convention is the same as associating with that organization.
• The word betray, when used in context of military leadership, clearly suggests that the general is a traitor.
• The Democrats are not distancing themselves from the ad, much less condemning it.

It's bad for a major suporter of Democrats to suggest that our general betrays us, it's bad for an elected U.S. represetative to not "distance" himself from such a statement, it's bad to hide behind the word "associated" and an unexplicable definition of it, and it's bad to defend the ad with a strange definition of "betray."

The Democratic dictionary sure keeps people confused (not to mention that they end sentences with prepostions.)

Can't the Democrats quit hiding behind words and just come out and say that the ad is wrong because they are loyal Americans and serve in Congress? (You don't have to answer that.)

But, just to show how simple this should be, the word "betray" has a clear meaning when used to describe a military person, it is offensive and misleading to use that term to describe this general, I have no association with MoveOn.org, yet, I can not only distance myself from its ad but, as a patriot, I condemn it as well.

Try it yourself. If we can show Democrats that we can condemn the MoveOn.org ad, then maybe they will know that it's possible.

In the meantime, people should be reminded of the cowardly refusal of the Democrats to do the right thing, and people should continue to pressure them to condemn disgusting attacks on a good and competent general. We wouldn't want the Democrats to be put into a position where others would say that they betrayed our soldiers and our country.

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August 30, 2007

Oh, THOSE Weapons of Mass Destruction

I think that we have a clue as to what happened to some of the WMD's that the U.N. inspectors said were not in Iraq. They were certainly right about these not being there.

Dangerous Iraq chemicals found stored at U.N. in NY

(Reuters) Aug 30, 2007 - United Nations officials found vials of dangerous chemicals, which had been removed from Iraq a decade ago, in a U.N. building in New York.... The material was phosgene, a chemical warfare agent.... The Iraqi weapons inspectors came across the material as they were closing their offices, which are housed in a building near the U.N. headquarters in Manhattan....

Oops. I bet that these guys were just as surprised as Hillary Clinton was when someone found the Rose Law Firm billing records in the private living area of the White House. Maybe Hussein or the U.N. thought to have Sandy Berger sneak out the rest of the WMD's in his socks.

Keep moving, folks. There's nothing to see here. No evidence of WMD's. Keep your eyes forward and keep moving. No talking.

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August 11, 2007

Iraq - Talk's Cheap [Updated]

It's one thing to say something to get elected. It's another thing to make it work. The Democrats told us during the last fall elections that they will get us out of Iraq within months. How's that program coming along? Now, let's see how those words compare to the ideas of leading Democrats in the Presidential race today.

Democrats Say Leaving Iraq May Take Years

Even as they call for an end to the war and pledge to bring the troops home, the Democratic presidential candidates are setting out positions that could leave the United States engaged in Iraq for years.

John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, would keep troops in the region to intervene in an Iraqi genocide and be prepared for military action if violence spills into other countries. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York would leave residual forces to fight terrorism and to stabilize the Kurdish region in the north. And Senator Barack Obama of Illinois would leave a military presence of as-yet unspecified size in Iraq to provide security for American personnel, fight terrorism and train Iraqis.

...Among the challenges the next president could face in Iraq, three seem to be resonating the most: What to do if there is a genocide? What to do if chaos in Iraq threatens to engulf the region in a wider war? And what to do if Iraq descends into further lawlessness and becomes the staging ground for terrorist attacks elsewhere, including in the United States? ....

Talk's cheap. Responsible action is hard. But, honesty with the American people doesn't take any effort, and the Democrats won't even do that.

[Update]

My goodness, now The New York Times is beginning to provide cover for Democrats who know that reality cannot be doused with rhetoric. We cannot pull all of our troops out of Iraq immediately. Isn't that what we have been telling them? However, the NY Times makes sure to let people know that we have already lost.

Wrong Way Out of Iraq

...That closely follows the script some Americans now advocate for American forces in Iraq: reduce the numbers — and urban exposure — but still maintain a significant presence for the next several years. It’s a tempting formula, reaping domestic political credit for withdrawal without acknowledging that the mission has failed.

...The United States cannot walk away from the new international terrorist front it created in Iraq. It will need to keep sufficient forces and staging points in the region to strike effectively against terrorist sanctuaries there or a Qaeda bid to hijack control of a strife-torn Iraq. ....

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August 10, 2007

U.N. to the Rescue in Iraq!

Where were they for fifteen years, besides passing resolutions and taking bribes. But, now, the U.N. Security Council "approved a resolution Friday expanding the United Nations' role in Iraq in a move aimed at reconciling the country's rival groups, winning support from neighboring countries and tackling Iraq's humanitarian crisis."

And here is how they start from this article.

(Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynne Pascoe) said the United Nations expects to raise the ceiling for international staff in Iraq from 65 to 95 by October. Hours later, the U.N. Staff Council called on Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to pull all U.N. personnel out of the country until security improves.

Pascoe stressed that there are two constraints to an expanded U.N. role: Iraqi political leaders must decide what they want the U.N. to do, and security conditions must be sufficient for U.N. staffers to work, an issue the U.N. watches daily.

Such commitment... Maybe the U.N. can pass some resolutions ordering the terrorists to stop their attacks and send an inspection team to ensure that the terrorists don't really have any bombs. That worked so well before. You can always count on the U.N., if you know what I mean.

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August 03, 2007

What Could Be Worse Than Bush?

When polls don't count to the Left:

Zogby Poll: August 01, 2007 - Just 24% give the president favorable ratings of his performance in handling the war in Iraq, but confidence in Congress is significantly worse – only 3% give Congress positive marks for how it has handled the war.

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June 10, 2007

American Success In Iraq, Civil War, And Paternalism

In the current climate of anti-Americanism and opposition to the Iraq War several lines of thought have proliferated regarding the dire circumstances of America’s policy. They are the unlikelihood of American success, the problem that the conflict in Iraq might be a civil war, and the unwarranted paternalism of American foreign policy. These viewpoints betray a misunderstanding of America’s role in the world.

Firstly, it must be said that there always was a chance for success in Iraq and there still is. According to journalist Michael Gordon and military analyst Bernard Trainor, in their book “Cobra II “, the operation for the liberation and reconstruction was planned but imperfectly executed. And what many critics of the war fail to realize is that Islamic extremism has its own agenda regardless of the maneuvers of the Bush administration or the perfectibility of operational plans. So even if strategy is competently executed Radical Islam will not go quietly in the night.

The Bush administration’s strategy of engagement with Islamic Extremism is an existential to threat to their ideology. The threat of the Coalition’s success is so dangerous to the Jihadis that if it wasn’t, then Al Qaeda and others would not have declared it the central front in their war against the West, nor would they and the insurgents have stepped up terrorist attacks in the last year. The establishment of a viable democracy in Iraq represents a mortal threat to the Jihadist worldview in such a way that it must be met with all possible resistance.

Actually, one could say that the war was slowly being won before March 2006. The bombing of the “Golden Mosque” at that time signaled a downward turn of events in Iraq. Before that terrorist attack several milestones and opinion polls in Iraq showed movement on a more positive trajectory, economically, politically, and societally. Since the Samara bombing, however, there has been a reversal.

But, this reversal is itself being reversed or at least contested. The recent successes of the “surge”, the political awakening of the Sunnis, the coming together of Sunnis and Shiites in Baghdad to oppose the Coalition wall to separate neighborhoods are instances of cooperation and reconciliation.

Moreover, the chance for success in Iraq is put into historical context by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s position paper about insurgent warfare. This study shows that insurgencies fail half the time and thus, counter-insurgencies succeed the other half of the time. A 50/50 ratio is a pretty good chance of success, especially in war.

So historically, data shows a legitimate chance for success; contemporaneously, developments show a halting realignment; and journalistically, reportage reveals the inherent problems of nation-building.

Secondly, the label of civil war has been applied to Iraq with the idea that if it is, then it is a losing proposition to continue to stay in such a benighted land. Even Democratic politicians like Senator Schumer have categorically asserted that Iraq is in a civil war and that America hasn’t even chosen sides. But to say that Iraq is a civil war is to imperfectly understand the meaning of that term.

The conventional view is that a civil war is a war in which parties within the same culture, society or nationality fight against each other for the control of political power. A more sophisticated view entails a broader and more accurate understanding.

John Keegan, an eminent British military historian, says Iraq is not a civil war because the criteria for civil war include, not only the conventional view, but that the opposing sides are recognized and are public in their views, that a significant portion of the population is associated with the opposing sides, and that there is hostile contention by means of armed forces. (This does not necessarily mean formal battles, but there must be a minimum degree of organisation, formality and identifiability of combatants). A civil war also requires leaders who say what they are fighting for, a public that understands what it is all about, and a sense of unity among the opposition. Most of these criteria are not met. Additionally, the point of the violence must be to achieve sovereign rule, control over a separatist state, or to force a major change in policy. Fighting for revenge, for rights, mass criminality and economic gain are not sufficient motives to proclaim civil war.

In contrast, a sectarian insurgency (which is what the Iraq war has become) is violent action by a minority group or groups within a state (or in some instances a majority group which lacks power) intent on forcing political change by a mixture of subversion, propaganda, military pressure, and ethnic or religious strife.

Furthermore, Senator Schumer’s allegation of civil war doesn’t hold up when the question is put to the very people who are supposed to be in the civil war – the Iraqi people. In a poll conducted in Iraq from Feb. 25 to Mar. 5, 2007, and published in the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index, the question was asked: Is Iraq in a Civil War? The overall response was 58% said no.

So the label of civil war does not hold in light of the criteria for the term, or even in the opinion of those Iraqis who are experiencing the war itself.

Thirdly, America’s role in Iraq has been impugned as paternalistic, that the US knows best what the Iraqi people want, and will force them to accept it.

But this is simplistic and misconstrues America’s role in the world. The idea that the America espouses democracy is not paternalism, but evidenced by the planet-wide movement towards democracy. One has only to look at the expansion of democracy around the world in the last 50 years. According to the UN, in the 1960’s there were about 30 democracies in the world, now there are about 120. That growth didn’t come about by paternalism. That growth came from a consensus by peoples around the world to embrace a system of government that encourages individualism and empowerment. America has been at the forefront of such a movement both directly and indirectly through the exercise of “hard and soft power”.

Moreover, the Iraqi people in three elections in 2005 voted in overwhelming numbers, under threat of death. This was not from some top-down directive, but a demonstration of a grassroots desire for choice and self-determination.

So Iraqis have voted freely without directives, don’t think it is a civil war they are in, and are following a trend in world history that embraces democracy; hardly the victims of paternalism.

The assessment that the policies of the America are misguided and even detrimental in individual cases can be argued; but in a wider context, over a period of decades, even centuries, the comparison with other countries and political systems would yield more beneficial results than detrimental ones. Hasn’t recent world history already shown a preference for liberal democracy over totalitarian communism? This is not to say that liberal democracy is the apotheosis of human government, but at this time in history it provides the best framework for the realization of basic human aspirations. This is the project outlined for America in the Bush administration’s National Security Strategy of 2002.

America is not paternalistic, but quietly, perhaps annoyingly, confident that democracy will prevail.

Lawrence S. Harris
© June 2007

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